Far From Neutral Notions - Philippine politics, culture and stuff

Or why I don’t think GMA will declare Martial Law

Activist and former man of the cloth Ed de la Torre once argued that Marcos declaring martial law wasn’t feasible. Marcos would not declare martial law, de la Torre said, because he did not have to. He had alternatives which were so much better. He had this to say:

Prophetic words, albeit 33 years off - in fact, de la Torre’s logic seems mirrored not by the dictator of his time, but by the current resident of Malacañang. Kids, it is the year 2005, but while the trechearous Decepticons are nowhere to be found, there is plenty of treachery and deceiit going around.

If there is anything about GMA that I have come to understand, it is that she is a student of history as much as economics. Where freedom would die thrashing under the boot heel of oppression and tyranny the first time, it would boil slowly this time.

Cruicial differences: 1972 and 2005

In 1972, nobody believed it could or would be done. While some were prepared for it, martial law, as an immediate thing, was for all intents and purposes, not. Barely 50,000 strong, the military was fighting a two pronged war: with the NPA in the north, and the Muslim rebels in the south. It was stretched too thin on those two fronts, and inviting a revolt in the heart of the capital was plain lunacy. Or so many thought.

What Marcos had on his side was the element of surprise, because while people knew intellectually that it was in the offing, they couldn’t imagine it. For the more perceptive ones, while they knew it was coming, they never realized it would come so soon. Even Ninoy Aquino was surprised by its suddenness; this even though he exposed Oplan Saggitarius the very same week Marcos would declare martial law. It just wasn’t possible, or even rational. Marcos had the constitutional convention at the palm of his hand. Indeed, as de la Torre mentioned, Marcos didn’t need martial law yet.

And by taking the opposition, and the nation, by surprise, the Police Constabulary was able to round up most of the people in their order of battle, mostly members of the opposition and journalists. Which leads to Marcos’ second advantage: he was able to take out key commuications facilities and establishments within the next 24 hours, thereby leaving the rest of the country ignorant as to what was happening. In a nation with the most free press, having no newspaper to read or radio commentator to listen to the first thing in the morning came as a great shock.

Marcos’ gamble worked; the people were too stunned to mount any form of resitance. The communists, Muslim rebels and warlords were, for a time, rendered inutile. Even crime was virtually nonexistent. The whole thing was frighteningly efficient, but it only worked because information, and the flow thereof, was very centralized. Take out Metro Manila and you pretty much leave the rest of the country in the dark.

For a short time anyway. What Marcos eventually found out is that you can only push a people so far. Indeed, when the initial shock wore off, martial law did the recriuting for Joma Sison and Nur Misuari for them.

GMA knows this. She doesn’t have the element of surprise; as poor a racial memory as we Filipinos have, it’s not that poor. We can smell a martial law declaration a mile away, and she can’t shut down communications with impunity, what with the internet and cell phones. So what Marcos did with broad strokes, she will do with small ones. What Marcos did boldly, with Proclamation 1081, GMA does subtly, with EO464, CPR and the new anti-terror law. Slowly and inexorably, she is stripping us of the rights that we hold dear, as surely as Marcos ever did.

Staring at us in the face

Will we even know when we’ve been transported to the Orwellian 1984? She won’t declare martial law, but she sure as hell is implementing it. Come on, Mrs. Pidal! Call a spade a spade. The CODAL’s analysis hit the nail right on the head when it noted: “… Any demonstration or rally creating serious interference and intended or threatening to force the Arroyo government to step down is terrorism under the bill. Opposition figures demanding the “resignation of Pres. Arroyo otherwise she will be ousted through people power” are now considered ‘terrorists’. This practically makes the very authors of the Bill, namely Rep. Dudut Jaworski, Rep. Roilo Golez, Rep. Ace Barbers and Rep. Imee Marcos liable for terrorism subject to the extreme penalty of death if they participate in rallies or another EDSA people power.”¹

They go on to add that “the bill criminalizes workers’ strike or any form of strikes such as ‘jeepney strikes’ for causing ‘serious interference’ in public service with the intention of coercing the government to ‘roll back oil prices’. Any labor strike is intended to disrupt the services of a ‘private’ facility with the intention of forcing (intimidating or coercing) the employers in order for the workers to get their demands for higher wages or better working conditions. Strikes and demonstrations are basically coercive tools of the people, respected under the Constitution and international human rights law and are deemed necessary components in the exercise of civil and political rights. They become terrorist acts under the Bill.”²

This is tantamount to declaring martial law, but disguised in legalese even Marcos and Johnny Enrile would drool over. In this, GMA has read the Filipino people well. By not declaring it outright, she is throwing the country in lukewarm water and slowly heating the pot. This is why people are slow to react, our instinctive rage at the dying of the light dulled: there is very little to react to. But the danger is clear, it is present, and it is staring us in the face. Like martial law was in 1972, what we face today is a totally new animal, catching us with our pants down, and we find ourselves without reasonable options.

Kabayan: our biggest problem?

Another large part of what holds us back is the very frightening thought of Noli de Castro succeeding her. Should a true People Power revolution succeed, we would only be replacing the devil we know, De Castro being at best an unknown quantity, at worst yet another crony. And this is where the basic concept of People Power fails us, or rather, where we fail it.

We tend to see it as a quick fix: just get rid of the one in power and move on; we’ll worry about the replacement later. But it should not stop there. Knowing as we do that we have a false leader in Malacañang, it should not be enough that we call for her resignation. In this I echo the sentiments of a PDI columnist in clamoring for new elections - and make sure not only that the person who wins actually sits in the Palace, but that he/she behaves as well. As Thomas Jefferson once said, eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.

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