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A year ago they were primed to go back to the NBA Finals and avenge their loss to the Spurs. But a month ago, neither Detroit nor San Antonio were in contention for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, and we were introduced to the Wade era. The future, as they say, will never be the same again.

With a coaching change and a regular season that left everybody in the dust and broke the team record for wins, people from inside and out of the organization have on more than one occasion said that anything short of a championship would be deemed a failure. So, following their collapse at the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat, the Pistons went into serious rethinking mode about how to get back to the promised land.

Now I’m a stalwart Larry Brown fan, having seen his Pacers give my Bulls a serious run for their money several times, and helping Iverson mature enough to carry his team to the Finals. Taking a veteran team like Detroit to the Finals twice and winning it once is merely icing on his cake; what he’s done previously is proof of his brilliant basketball mind. So when Flip Saunders replaced him - the same Flip Saunders that consistently failed to make plays for KG (the best player in the league, and he only gets 25+ touches and takes 16 FGA per game - WTF) and is on the record as a playoff flop - I had my doubts right away. The man chokes come playoff time, as shown when he consistently failed to throw bodies at Wade in this year’s Eastern Conference finals. Saunders is also an offensive X and O man, something that the Pistons aren’t used to: they’ve successfully won a championship on defense alone. What I said about Pacquiao needing to concentrate on his main thing applies to the Pistons as well: their main thing is defense, and dilluting that focus has indeed led them to disastrous results. Consider the chart of the last 3 seasons:

The Four Factors

2006

Team FG%: 45.4% (2,983/6558), Opp FG%: 45% (2,915/6,450)

2005

Team FG%: 44.4% (2,851/6421), Opp FG%: 42.9% (2,791/6,496)

2004

Team FG%: 43.5% (2,747/6314), Opp FG%: 41.2% (2,633/6,378)

Looking at the 2005 and 2006 stats in particular, it’s almost as if the offensive and defensive numbers were switched; they are shooting the ball at an increased rate because Saunders has opened up their offense, but the hustle stats like rebounding and opponent field goal % have all gone down. This worked in the regular season because teams don’t play defense as intensely as they do in the playoffs, and the opponent can’t metagame against you. But as the Spurs and the Pistons themselves have shown, defense wins championships, but, well, Saunders doesn’t know that I guess.

The first casualty for failing to reach the Finals is, ironically, the face of the franchise and defensive stalwart Ben Wallace, who will sign as a free agent to the Chicago Bulls for an estimated $60M for four years. Replacing him will be ex-Spur Nazr Mohammed, who is at least an offensive upgrade (hell, anybody’s an offensive upgrade compared to Wallace), but represents a steep drop defensively. What will this mean for the Pistons? Here’s a career per48 minute comparison:

We can clearly see the offensive numbers favoring Mohammed: he takes, on average, almost twice as many shots as Wallace, making half. He’s also a substantially better free throw shooter. He does turn the ball over almost twice as much, and has an atrocious foul rate, but he is a comparble rebounder, particularly in the offensive end. We already know that Mohammed isn’t the defensive presence that Wallace is, as shown by their blocks and steals averages. All indication thus far though points to Mohammed as being a subpar replacement for Wallace; Detroit, a defensive-minded team (albeit with an offensive-minded coach) will miss Wallace’s presence greatly.

Their 2005-2006 stats only highlight this:

Despite scoring more on fewer actual minutes, Mohammed is turnover and foul-prone. Wallace’s PER for 2005-2006 is 17.5 while Mohammed’s is a league-average 15. This is significant because a player’s PER rating is calculated solely on stats and slightly favors offensive-minded players, and a lot of what Wallace does comes in the form of defensive intimidation, not something that can be quantified. Wallace still comes out on top, which means that, despite being a one-sided player, he’s a spectaculr one-sided player. The one upside is that Mohammed is only 28, and Wallace is turning 32 - the age where most dominant big men start to fade away (see Shaq, Russel, Chamberlain).

Ironically enough, this change may just be what Flip Saunders wanted: Wallace was never his biggest fan, and Flip most likely misses a dominant, two-way big man like KG. This way, Flip has four options at the 5 spot: Sheed, Nazr, Dale Davis and Antonio McDyess. His most potent lineup would probbly consist of Sheed at center, Dyess at PF, Prince, Rip and Chauncy. It can offer more offensive mismatches than having Big Ben there, and still have enough intelligent team-defenders that nobody will be scorching them for 81 (or even 50) anytime soon. They’ll have to work harder collectively because Sheed isn’t the deterrent Ben is, but offensively, it could work, particularly with Saunder’s motion offense.

However, this means that there has, once again, been a power shift in the East; Detroit is no longer the favorite to fight against Miami for the Conference title. With LeBron James playing MVP-caliber basketball, and assuming Hughes can stay healthy, Detroit’s not even the favorite to win their division. Cleveland clearly gave Detroit a scare when they met during Bron’s second round debut, needing to get lucky on games 6 and 7 to put away the LeBronnaires despite having both home court advantage and experience. This just might be the thing the Cavs needed to vault themselves into the title hunt, and I’m sure I’m not alone in drooling over the prospect of a Miami Heat-Cleveland Cavaliers, Wade-LeBron Eastern Conference Finals matchup.

As for the Bulls? Expect them to win a few more games than they did last year; with their #2 pick (and a possible 1st round pick in 2007 via the Curry trade from New York), rumors of a Chandler for PJ Brown trade to beef up their front court and make up for Big Ben’s offensive shortcomings, Kirk Hinrich and Co. can look forward to better times ahead. I wouldn’t put them in contender status just yet - they’re probably neck and neck with the New Jersey Nets for 4th in the East, but they’re definitely better off. The Big Ben is tolling, and it tolls for you, Chicago.

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