Far From Neutral Notions – Philippine politics, culture and stuff

Mar Roxas – Noynoy Aquino tandem for 2010?

Update: I knew it :D

I know that Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III categorically stated that he had no plans to run for Vice-President, but you have to admit, the Liberal Party has to be considering it, given LP Presidential Candidate Mar Roxas’ weak showing in the early polls. Callous as it is — yes, I grieve as deeply as any Filipino at the passing of Cory Aquino — the fact remains that you can’t buy this kind of PR. After all, Philippine politics is nothing more than a glorified moro-moro, and the show must go on.

Will Noynoy make a good Vice President? Hell if I know. He’s hardly had a stellar record as a Senator, and Hacienda Luisita will always be a shameful reminder that he does not belong to a family of saints, but landlords. But can he win, and also boost Mar’s chances? I think so.

More than anybody right now, Noynoy enjoys the greatest potential to be someone that people would rally to, not just at,simply by being the son of two people that are, in the eyes of many, as close to being heroes as politicians can get. If what we’ve seen in the last few days can tell us something, it’s that the memory of the EDSA People Power Revolution can still stir the hearts of many Filipinos, and Cory was the symbol of that glorious moment. The sudden proliferation of Ninoy/Cory/EDSA memorabilia, the spikes in search and blog traffic for the terms Ninoy Aquino, Cory Aquino, and EDSA, and even the number of YouTube tributes, suggest that they still matter to the youth — the demographic that will be key to the 2010 elections.

Cory, Ninoy and EDSA Google Trends

Cory, Ninoy and EDSA IceRocket Trends

If Noynoy can leverage that free PR — and he’s already on the right track with his criticism of GMA and his anti-Chacha stance — if he can play the part that his parents embodied — fighting for democracy and the peaceful transition of power — if he can evoke memories of what EDSA meant to many people — if he can paint GMA as Marcos part deux (which is easy enough to do) — then winning in 2010 is certainly feasible.

That’s a lot of “ifs”, I know, but it can be done. The real question I suppose is: will he milk it? Is Noynoy politician enough to use the death of his mother to further his political career? After all, he’s already leveraged his father’s assassination to get to the Senate in the past… why not now? And would he be wrong (or right) to do so?

If or when it happens — that Noynoy runs for the Vice Presidency (or gasp — the Presidency) in 2010, here’s how I think it will play out:

He’ll wait until the last possible moment; to declare so soon would be seen as opportunistic, regardless of the real situation. Until then, he’ll step up the criticism of GMA and try to accumulate as much political mileage not directly related to what his parents have done, maybe pass a bill or two. Maybe even address some of the issues surrounding Hacienda Luisita. He will fight Charter Change will renewed vigor, and expand/clarify his currently limited and vague platform. Straight out of the Mar Roxas playbook. And each speech will reverberate with echoes of “This is what my mother/father/the spirit of EDSA would have wanted.”

Then when (if) he finally declares, it will be declared as “A continuation of the fight that my mother/father/the spirit of EDSA started.” Something along the lines of “I will not betray the principles I was brought up with; my mother/father/the spirit of EDSA showed us the way, and I will honor their memories by pledging my service to the Filipino people in this time of political turmoil and uncertainty, where our very freedoms are threatened once again.” In the background, a film montage of how Ninoy and Cory fought those same evils in the past, images of EDSA, Martial Law, the 1983 assassination, spliced with videos of the demonstrations against GMA, JocJoc, EO464, audio clips of “Hello Garci”, and a host of other evils.

Then a touching moment between Mar and Noynoy embracing, Kris and Korina by their sides, and finally raising their arms up, with the Laban “L” sign proudly held high.

Related posts:

1. Remembering Cory
2. Cory Aquino’s Prayer for a Happy Death
3. August 1 ’09 Bullets – Cory Aquino
4. Using Google’s tools to track the 2010 Elections
5. EDSA Cha Cha